Independence referendum

Answer:
A vote for independence would be a major change for the UK. Just as a simple majority was required for the Brexit vote, it is reasonable to expect the same to be the case for independence.

Full answer here: Majorities in UK Referenda



Answer:
The odds are of course changing all the time.  At September 2021 the betting was slightly favouring independence, while the polls were slightly favouring remain.

Full answer here: Betting odds on Scottish independence



Exploring Sovereignty in Scotland

Author / Creator: David McCrone

Media type: Article

Date published: 2022

Scottish independence movement places independence in a European context of shared sovereignty. 


A Second Scottish Independence Referendum: Should the Diaspora get a Vote?

Author / Creator: Murray Stewart Leith

Media type: Article

Date published: 2023

The 2014 referendum result did not end the debate around Scottish independence.


How did we get here? The SNP’s unravelling political strategy and the 2024 UK General Election

Author / Creator: Mark McGeoghegan

Media type: Article

Date published: 2024

How did the SNP fail to gain a second independence referendum?


How devolution shaped modern Scotland: referendums, SNP dominance and a changed UK

Author / Creator: Adam Le Grice

Media type: Article

Date published:

The years that followed the SNP victory in the Scottish Parliament saw a radical change in the political landscape of Scotland and the UK


Scottish independence referendum: role of the Supreme Court

Author / Creator: David Torrance

Media type: Article

Date published:

Yesterday (28 June 2022) Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, set out a “route map” to holding a second referendum on the question of Scottish independence.

This Insight looks at what the Scottish Government is proposing and related legal issues.


STATE OF THE UNION

Author / Creator: Will Tanner

Media type: Report

Date published: 2021

The State of the Union ... reveals how rising support for independence is volatile.


Supreme Court doubles down on the UK referendum position

Author / Creator: Richard Parry

Media type: Article

Date published: 2022

The UK knows now knows that holds the legal cards, but politically it is the veto player with limited democratic grounding.


Unhelpful Clarifications

Author / Creator: Michael Keating

Media type: Article

Date published: 2022

The Supreme Court judgment on the legality of a Scottish independence referendum is to remove democratic rights.


Scottish Independence And The UK Government’s Unreasonable Refusal To Negotiate

Author / Creator: Sionaidh Douglas-Scott

Media type: Article

Date published: 2022

The UK Government’s conduct in refusing to negotiate with Scotland on independence is reprehensible.


Independence Is Not About Process Politics. It Is About Democracy.

Author / Creator: Gerry Hassan

Media type: Article

Date published: 2022

Referenda talk concentrates on process rather than substance, misses the big picture here of democracy, and overlooks the nuances of public opinion.


Scotland's New Choice: Independence after Brexit

Author / Creator: Eve Hepburn

Media type: eBook

Date published: 2021

 Opportunities and  challenges surrounding the prospect of independence for Scotland in the light of changes since 2014.


Not up to the courts

Author / Creator: Ciaran Martin

Media type: Article

Date published:

It is unrealistic to think that Scotland will leave the Union without the consent of Westminster. This makes the key question a political one, which the courts cannot resolve.


Would Scots vote for indy? What’s the question…!

Author / Creator: Rob Ford

Media type: Article

Date published:

The form of the question on a referendum would make a difference in results.


Time for the SNP to get serious

Author / Creator: James Mitchell

Media type: Article

Date published:

“The issues are whether and how an independent Scotland would make the transition, at what cost, paid for by whom, over how long and, crucially, what policies would be needed to get to a position where people are at least no worse off.  These are not insurmountable but they are challenging.”


Believe in Scotland’s Big Indy Poll Results

Author / Creator: Believe in Scotland

Media type: Opinion poll

Date published:

A survey of over 3,000 people indicates that Scotland will have a referendum, that the spring of 2023 is most popular and that the vote will be "yes". Also that the coalition between SNP and Scottish Greens makes the referendum more likely.


Scottish independence: could wind power Scotland back into the EU?

Author / Creator: Piotr Marek Jaworski

Media type: News Media

Date published:

Scotland’s competitive advantage in green energy ought to be an important part of the economic case for independence when the second referendum takes place.


Busting the last of the myths around independence. Open Minds on Independence #20

Author / Creator: Believe in Scotland

Media type: News Media

Date published:

This article looks at myths about Scottish independence.

MYTH 7: Nationalism is by its very nature a bad thing

MYTH 8: An independent Scotland would be last in the queue to join the EU

Myth 9: You can’t hold a referendum without Westminster’s “permission”

Myth 10: Independence for Scotland would abandon the rest of the UK to permanent Tory rule


This is why the Westminster myths about independence are wrong. Open minds on independence #18

Author / Creator: Believe in Scotland

Media type: News Media

Date published:

This looks at three myths about Scottish independence:

MYTH 1: You'll have had your referendum.

MYTH 2: Scotland has a huge deficit because we spend too much on public services. 

MYTH 3: The costs of establishing Scotland as an independent country will be huge.